Diageo's baijiu bet met the winter: Swellfun cut its own shipments

Swellfun distills above the 600-year-old workshop site uncovered in Chengdu in 1998, positioned at the premium end. Diageo bought its controlling shareholder Quanxing Group in four tranches between 2006 and 2013, raising its stake to 63.14% in the 2018–19 tender offers — making it the only foreign-controlled listed baijiu maker on the A-share market. FY2024 was the peak: revenue ¥5.22 billion, profit ¥1.34 billion, ¥4.76 billion of it high-end bottles. Management churned beneath the owner: seven general managers between 2011 and 2024, each lasting about two years.

FY2025 (published April 29, 2026): revenue ¥3.038 billion, down 41.77%; attributable profit ¥406 million, down 69.73%. The wholesale channel carrying the brand's core was halved, down 50.95%; high-end liquor fell 43.59% to ¥2.687 billion; Q4 made ¥80 million of profit on ¥690 million of revenue. Operating cash flow turned negative at -¥624 million. Inventory rose 21.6% to ¥3.911 billion — 46% of total assets, 91% of it base liquor — and turnover stretched from 1,134 days to 2,095. Severance cost ¥44 million; short-term borrowings went from zero to ¥1.032 billion.

The company says part of the fall was chosen: 'active shipment control' — shipping less to hold prices. The distributor count rose by a net 40 to 101 while average revenue per distributor collapsed from ¥82.21 million to ¥28.11 million. The Shanghai exchange's inquiry letter, answered in July 2026, covered ¥912 million of factored receivables and a ¥791 million concentrated dividend to Diageo's GMIHL. The owner itself is wavering: Diageo's May 2025 'Accelerate' plan named selective disposals, analysts put Swellfun on the list, and its CEO has called baijiu a market 'without sufficient scale'.