The encyclopedia · R&D & Science · Strategic decision · 2011–2016
A respected psychologist published evidence of ESP — the replication crisis was born
Daryl Bem's 2011 paper claimed people could sense the future. It passed peer review, failed every replication, and became a landmark of the replication crisis.
Daryl Bem · Cornell University · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · 2011-01-06
What happened
In 2011, Daryl Bem, a respected Cornell University psychologist known for his 1960s self-perception theory, published a paper in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology claiming evidence of precognition — the ability to sense the future. The paper reported nine experiments where participants showed statistically significant anticipation of random future events.
The paper passed peer review and was published in one of psychology's most prestigious journals. The finding was reported worldwide as 'the study that proves ESP.' Bem had designed the experiments with careful controls, but the effects were small and the statistics unconventional — he used one-tailed tests and included analyses chosen after seeing the data.
Replication attempts failed consistently. By 2016, over 90 replication attempts had found no evidence of precognition. The Bem case became a landmark of the replication crisis: if a respected researcher at a top university could publish ESP in a top journal, the peer-review system was not catching what it should.
Why it happened
- Bem's paper used unconventional statistical methods — one-tailed tests and post-hoc analyses — that made weak evidence look significant, and peer review did not catch the problems.
- The journal published a sensational finding without demanding preregistration or full methodological transparency, trusting the researcher's reputation instead of the robustness of the evidence.
- The media amplified a single paper into 'ESP is real,' so the retraction of the finding years later received far less attention than the original claim.
The lesson
When a claim is extraordinary, the statistics need to be extraordinary too. Peer review that trusts reputation over method is how a respected psychologist ends up publishing evidence of ESP.
Sources
- Daryl Bem — Wikipedia
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology — 'Feeling the Future', Bem 2011 (the original paper; nine experiments, mean effect size d = 0.22)
- Cornell Chronicle — Study looks at brain's ability to 'see the future' (6 Dec 2010; Bem's nine experiments, publication in JPSP announced)
- The Guardian — Precognition studies: the curse of failed replications (15 Mar 2012; by one of the replicators; JPSP rejected the replication paper unread)
- PLOS ONE — Ritchie, Wiseman & French, 'Failing the future' (14 Mar 2012; three pre-registered replication attempts, all failed)
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