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The encyclopedia · Strategy & Leadership · Strategic decision · 2022

Spotify's $100M bet on one podcaster cost it two catalogs and a policy reversal

Neil Young's ultimatum — 'They can have Rogan or Young. Not both.' — cost Spotify two catalogs; it kept Rogan, then added COVID advisories anyway.

Spotify · 2022-01-26

What happened

In May 2020 Spotify announced a multi-year exclusive licensing deal for The Joe Rogan Experience, believed to be worth $100 million — at the time the biggest bet in podcasting. The show was pulled from every other platform by the end of that year, video episodes included, and Spotify staked its audio future on one host's voice.

Eighteen months later the bet turned. In January 2022 an open letter signed by hundreds of doctors and scientists accused the show of spreading misinformation about Covid-19 and vaccines, and on 24 January Neil Young posted an ultimatum to his manager and label: 'I am doing this because Spotify is spreading fake information about vaccines — potentially causing death to those who believe the disinformation being spread by them... They can have Rogan or Young. Not both.' Spotify represented 60% of Young's global streaming income; he called the loss 'a costly move, but worth it'.

Two days later, on 26 January, Spotify removed Young's catalog. A spokesperson said: 'We regret Neil's decision to remove his music from Spotify, but hope to welcome him back soon.' On 28 January Joni Mitchell followed: 'Irresponsible people are spreading lies that are costing people their lives. I stand in solidarity with Neil Young.' Her albums, Blue included, were gone the next day.

Spotify kept Rogan, and the cost did not stop at the catalogs. On 30 January chief executive Daniel Ek published the company's Platform Rules for the first time and announced a content advisory on every podcast episode discussing Covid-19 — the stance the platform had refused to take for two years. The exclusivity that made the bet so large also made it hard to unwind: in February 2024 Rogan signed a reported $250 million deal that put the show back on every platform, and in March 2024 Young returned, explaining that the misinformation he had opposed was by then streaming everywhere.

Why it happened

  • The deal made one person the strategy: Rogan was the flagship exclusive, so Spotify could not fire him or silence the show without writing off the bet — every option cost more than the last.
  • Exclusivity made the platform the only door: with the show gone from every other outlet, criticism of the content landed on Spotify's rules alone — there was no other party to share the blame.
  • The stance had no exit: 'we don't dictate what creators say' held until a music service had to choose between an artist's catalog and a podcaster — one had to lose, and the choice became the story.
  • The reversal came: four days after Mitchell left, Spotify published its Platform Rules and added Covid advisories — the week it insisted it was not a censor, and the change read as a defeat.
What it costTwo catalogs gone for two years; policy reversalcostly

The lesson

A platform bet on a person's audience has no exit: Spotify could not drop Rogan without writing off $100 million, so it kept him, lost two catalogs, and added advisories. Price the downside first.

Aftermath

Rogan stayed with Spotify, and the exclusivity did not survive the controversy: in February 2024 he signed a reported $250 million deal that made the show available across platforms again, and in March 2024 Neil Young put his music back on Spotify, writing that the misinformation he had opposed was by then streaming on Apple, Amazon and every other service he could not leave. Joni Mitchell's catalog returned the same month, ending a boycott that had lasted just over two years.

Sources

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