Moutai's wholesale price fell below its own list price — the 'liquid gold' myth broke

For years, Kweichow Moutai's flagship Feitian baijiu traded well above its ¥1,499 official retail guidance, making it both a luxury drink and an investment asset. In 2025 the price steadily declined: below ¥2,000 in June, ¥1,800 in August, ¥1,700 in October, ¥1,600 in November, and on December 12 the wholesale price fell to ¥1,485 per bottle — below the company's own guidance for the first time. Some e-commerce platforms listed it at ¥1,399.

The collapse was driven by three forces: weak consumer demand among white-collar drinkers, an inventory glut from years of aggressive production, and a May 2025 central-government ban on serving baijiu at official working meals. Moutai's response was indirect — a ¥30 billion interim dividend to stabilise the stock and a push into younger consumers through small-bottle formats and Moutai ice cream. Chairman Chen Hua acknowledged the downturn might continue but said 'opportunities always outweigh challenges.' The company's 2025 revenue growth of 6.4% was its slowest in 11 years.

The price drop shattered the investment premium narrative, so Moutai paid a ¥30 billion dividend and pushed small bottles and ice cream, but these cannot fix weak demand.

Moutai's entire brand value rested on the price staying above the list price — once it fell below, the 'investment-grade' narrative collapsed alongside the wholesale price

The company's response focused on financial engineering and product extensions rather than addressing the structural demand problem

When a brand's value is defined by a price premium, any decline in that premium is a crisis — and product extensions cannot fix a demand problem