The pickled-fish king lost its appetite: Jiumaojiu closed a fifth of its network

Guan Hongyi built Jiumaojiu as a Shanxi noodle chain before a 2015 side project changed everything: Tai Er pickled fish, sold under strict rules — no parties of more than four, no customising the recipe. The group listed in Hong Kong on January 15, 2020 at HK$6.60, closed up 56%, market cap HK$13.8 billion. At listing it ran 287 self-operated and 41 franchised restaurants, and Tai Er was the engine: ¥538 million of revenue in H1 2019, up 146.8% year on year. The answer to every question was to open another Tai Er — until there were 807 restaurants at end-2024, 634 of them the fish.

The FY2025 results read like a retreat: revenue ¥5.233 billion, down 13.84%; 189 restaurants closed against 26 openings — a net loss of 163 doors to 644. Tai Er went from 634 to 499 (net −135, including 11 converted to franchise), its revenue down 15.7% to ¥3.72 billion, table turns 3.5 to 3.1 a day, same-store daily sales down 11.5%; Song hotpot fell 80 to 62. Core operating profit was ¥138 million, down 45.2%, margin 4.2% to 2.6%. The +14.3% headline profit of ¥51.25 million was arithmetic: cost cuts, a ¥105 million fair-value gain from Meet Noodles' IPO and ¥24.48 million of FX gains.

The market priced it as shrinkage: the share fell from HK$2.98 to HK$1.95 — down 34.6%, low HK$1.58 — and Huatai cut its target from HK$3.52 to HK$2.10. The comeback bet is revamp, not expansion: 273 Tai Er stores rebuilt around live fish, fresh chicken and beef; 11 Tai Er doors handed to franchisees; $43 million lifting North America's Big Way Hot Pot from 10% to 49%; two new brands launched in December 2025. Mainland Tai Er same-store sales turned positive in Q4 2025 and grew double digits in Q1 2026 — measured against a network a fifth smaller than the one that IPO'd the story.