Idemitsu pledged to cut 300,000 bpd of refining by 2030 — then reversed course in 2026

In June 2022 Idemitsu Kosan, Japan's second-largest refiner, announced that domestic fuel demand was shrinking faster than any prior forecast: by 2030 the group would carry a 300,000 barrel-per-day surplus of refining capacity. The remedy in its 2022 medium-term plan was to cut roughly 20% of capacity, starting with the Yamaguchi refinery owned by group firm Seibu Oil — 120,000 bpd — where refining would stop around March 2024. Executive vice president Susumu Nibutani told reporters that the 300,000-bpd cut 'is not the end', signalling further shrinkage beyond 2030.

Yamaguchi shut as planned in 2024, and Idemitsu said utilization at its remaining plants would rise from 77% toward 90%. But the transition Idemitsu priced in did not arrive on schedule: EV uptake in Japan lagged, gasoline demand held firm, and Middle East tensions made domestic refining a security asset. In February 2026 Kyodo reported that Idemitsu had decided to retract the 300,000-bpd target outright and keep its six refineries through at least 2030, with the new medium-term plan that March expected to formalize the reversal — an about-face inside a single planning cycle.

The reversal was not costless. Sankei's Sanspo noted the remaining refineries are ageing, making the equipment-renewal investment case awkward to present, and the retained capacity must now be defended against import competition rather than shrinking gracefully into the energy transition.

Yamaguchi refinery's 120,000 bpd closed by 2024 under a 300,000-bpd cut; in 2026 Idemitsu dropped the target and will keep all six refineries running

The 2022 plan extrapolated an EV adoption curve that Japan never followed, treating a 2030 demand forecast as established fact and hard-wiring it into irreversible capacity cuts.

Executives publicly committed to cuts beyond the 300,000 bpd ('is not the end'), converting a hedgeable surplus into closed plants before the demand picture was settled.

Shrinking refining was the decarbonisation consensus answer of 2022, so the plan faced little internal challenge even though the projection sat on a single, fast-moving variable.

Refinery closures compound: once Yamaguchi stopped, the option to idle rather than close was gone, and the 2026 reversal inherited ageing plants instead of a pause button.

Plan shrinkage for the demand that shows up, not the transition that was promised. Capacity scrapped on a 2030 forecast had to be kept alive on emergency terms when EVs stalled.

Yamaguchi ended refining in 2024 and its site was kept for tank storage, stockpiling and solar power. In February 2026 Kyodo reported Idemitsu would scrap the 300,000-bpd target and keep a six-refinery system until at least 2030, citing slower EV adoption and firm gasoline demand; the sites once on the block included Hokkaido, Chiba and Aichi. President Noriaki Sakai told Nikkei refining's importance had risen amid Middle East tensions, and the March 2026 medium-term plan was to set the new balance, with executives calling the decarbonisation push merely 'waiting for the market to catch up'.