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The encyclopedia · Finance & Accounting · Financial decision · 2008

AIG insured the housing bubble with swaps it never hedged — and needed a $180B rescue

AIG's London unit sold credit default swaps insuring mortgage securities without hedging. When housing fell, losses overwhelmed AIG, forcing a $180B rescue.

AIG · 2008-09

What happened

American International Group (AIG) was one of the world's largest insurers. Through a small London-based unit called AIG Financial Products, it sold enormous quantities of credit default swaps — essentially insurance against the default of mortgage-backed securities and other debt. The business looked highly profitable: AIG collected premiums and, for years, paid out few claims. Crucially, AIG did not hedge the risk or set aside reserves against the possibility that many of these securities might default at once.

The bet was that the US housing market would not collapse broadly. When it did, in 2007-2008, the losses on the securities AIG had insured mounted fast, and the counterparties that had bought the swaps demanded collateral and payouts that AIG could not meet. Because AIG was so large and so interconnected with major banks and financial institutions around the world, its failure threatened to cascade through the entire global financial system.

In September 2008, the Federal Reserve stepped in with a rescue that ultimately reached about $180 billion, the largest bailout of the financial crisis, and the US government took a controlling stake in the company. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission later attributed AIG's failure to its 'massive sales of unhedged' credit default swaps. AIG eventually repaid the government about $205 billion (with interest) by 2012, but the episode had helped push the world to the brink of a second Great Depression.

Why it happened

  • AIG Financial Products sold tens of billions of dollars of credit default swaps insuring mortgage securities without hedging the risk or holding reserves to pay claims.
  • The unit treated the swaps as a low-risk fee business, assuming a broad housing collapse was essentially impossible.
  • When the housing market fell, the unhedged losses overwhelmed AIG, and its size and interconnections made its collapse a systemic threat.
  • Regulators had not adequately overseen the derivatives business, which sat largely outside the normal insurance-regulation framework.
What it cost$180B bailout; repaid $205B; near-collapsecatastrophic

The lesson

Selling insurance is a promise to pay when things go wrong; without hedging, you're betting they won't. AIG wrote tens of billions of protection on housing without reserving the money to pay.

Aftermath

AIG's near-collapse is a central case of the 2008 crisis and a textbook on selling unhedged protection at massive scale. The $180 billion bailout made AIG a symbol of 'too big to fail,' fueled anger over the Wall Street rescue, and helped drive the Dodd-Frank reforms on derivatives oversight. The lesson: when you sell protection, the risk doesn't vanish because you collected a premium. If you haven't hedged or reserved for it, a bad scenario can turn a profitable business into an existential threat overnight — and if you're big enough, take the system down with you.

Sources

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