The encyclopedia · Product & Design · Product decision · 2020–2024
Star Wars Outlaws: Ubisoft's flagship launch cut its stock 13.5%
Ubisoft's open-world Star Wars game missed sales targets at its Aug 30, 2024 launch; shares fell 13.5% and J.P. Morgan cut its forecast from 7.5M to 5.5M.
Ubisoft · 2024-08-30
What happened
Star Wars Outlaws — Ubisoft's open-world Star Wars adventure developed by Massive Entertainment, the studio behind The Division — was the publisher's flagship title of 2024, launched August 30 after years of development. It was Ubisoft's most important release in a period when the company's outlook depended on it.
The reviews were decent, but the sales were not: within days of launch, analysts reported the game had failed to meet sales targets. Ubisoft shares fell 13.5% in the wake of the release, and J.P. Morgan cut its sales forecast from 7.5 million units to 5.5 million for the fiscal year — noting the game cost 30% more than Assassin's Creed Mirage while underperforming it by 15%.
The failure landed at the worst possible moment: Ubisoft's market value had already been sliding, and Outlaws — priced and positioned as the company's comeback — accelerated the decline, with the stock hitting multi-year lows in the weeks after. One game, one launch, and the publisher's credibility as a premium studio was the collateral.
Why it happened
- The game was priced as a blockbuster and sold like a niche: an open-world Star Wars adventure had no multiplayer hook and no live-service revenue, so every unit had to carry the cost.
- The launch window was a crowded one: Outlaws opened between the year's biggest games, and 'decent reviews' were not enough to pull attention.
- Ubisoft had bet the company's narrative on this release: after years of delays and disappointments, Outlaws was positioned as proof the studio still mattered.
The lesson
When one game carries the company's narrative, its launch is the earnings report: Outlaws' 'decent reviews' could not stop a 13.5% stock drop.
Sources
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