The encyclopedia · Finance & Accounting · Operational decision · 2026
Pandora cut guidance twice in 2025 — then missed its own lowered bar
Two guidance cuts in 2025 — weak dollar, then tariffs — and FY2025 still came in below the lowered bar: 6% growth, a double-digit share jolt and a flat 2026.
Pandora · 2026-02-05
What happened
The year started with a trim. At its Q1 trading update on 7 May 2025, Pandora lowered its FY2025 EBIT margin guidance from around 24.5% to around 24%, blaming a weaker US dollar and US import tariffs that could add tens of millions of dollars of costs — the US is its biggest market. The second cut came on 9 January 2026: the preliminary FY2025 statement put full-year growth at about 6%, below the 7–8% guidance. Weak US holiday shopping sent the shares down by a tenth or more.
The full-year report on 5 February 2026 confirmed the miss. Revenue grew 6% as reported, but like-for-like sales rose only 2%; the EBIT margin came in at 23.9%, just under the reduced target, and cash conversion at 65%. The 2026 outlook was flatter still: organic growth of -1% to +2% and an EBIT margin of 21–22%, with Q1 trading showing flat like-for-like sales. New CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier's verdict was plain: 'growth was below our expectations'.
Two commodity problems compounded the demand problem. Surging silver prices squeezed the cost base and forced Pandora to pause its share buyback until a transition to platinum-plated jewellery progresses — the metal the charms are made of became a liability. And the tariff exposure flagged in May 2025 carried straight into the 2026 outlook.
The shape of the case is concentration: one market for demand, one metal for cost, one season for sales. When all three turned in the same year, two guidance cuts were still not enough to catch the fall.
Why it happened
- The US is Pandora's biggest market and the holiday quarter its peak season — when American charm-buying softened, no other market or season absorbed it
- Two cuts in one year — the May margin trim on dollar weakness and tariffs, the January growth warning on holiday sales — and the final result still landed below the last bar
- Silver is both the product and the exposure: surging prices squeezed margins and paused the buyback, forcing a pivot to platinum plating
- The 2026 guidance is effectively flat — organic growth of -1% to +2%, margin down to 21–22% — so the miss is not a one-year event but the start of a reset
The lesson
Concentration compounds: one market for demand, one metal for cost, one season for sales. When all three turn in the same year, cutting guidance twice is still not enough to catch the fall.
Aftermath
De Pablos-Barbier, the new CEO, sets three priorities: strengthen brand desirability, reduce commodity exposure, and change how growth is driven. The platinum-plating transition runs through 2026 with the buyback paused until it progresses; the company presents its 2026 strategic priorities next month. For a brand that once tried to go upmarket and lost 80% of its value, the test is holding the accessible middle while the costs of its own metal rise.
Sources
- FashionUnited — Pandora reaffirms FY25 results, outlines a flatter 2026 guidance (5 Feb 2026)
- WWD — Pandora Shares Fall 13% as It Anticipates Lower-than-expected 2025 Growth (9 Jan 2026)
- CPP Luxury — PANDORA cuts profit guidance and warns of tariffs impact (May 2025)
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