Nike was the $281B sneaker king — then Hoka and On ran past it

Nike, the world's largest sneaker brand, lost its dominant position in the running category as rivals Hoka, On, and New Balance captured the market it had built. Nike's market cap fell from $281 billion at its 2021 peak to $82 billion by late 2025 — a 71% decline. Fiscal 2026 revenue was flat at $46.4 billion, and the brand that once defined sneaker culture was described by analysts as 'falling behind on product innovation.'

The competitive data was stark. New Balance posted record annual sales of $9.2 billion in 2025, up 19% year-over-year — its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth. Hoka generated $2.587 billion in its 2026 fiscal year, and reached $704 million in Q1 2027 alone. Both brands built their gains squarely in performance running, the category Nike had dominated for decades. Retail Dive reported that running had become Nike's 'sore spot,' where 'smaller companies have grabbed share by capitalizing on running clubs and community events.'

Nike's decline was self-inflicted in part. Under former CEO John Donahoe, the company cut wholesale partners, shifted to DTC, and prioritized lifestyle sneakers over performance product. The running community — once Nike's strongest asset — turned to Hoka's maximalist cushioning and On's CloudTec technology. Chinese fashion media Ladymax reported that Hoka had 'become the first choice for many consumers and high-frequency sports people,' while Nike's Greater China revenue fell 11% in fiscal 2026. Nike's China EBIT dropped 49% in one quarter.

Returning CEO Elliott Hill launched the 'Win Now' and 'Sport Offense' turnaround strategies, cutting 15,000 discount sales points globally and refocusing on athlete-led product innovation. A 2026 World Cup campaign generated 1.5 billion views, and the Mercurial soccer cleat became Nike Direct's best-selling shoe launch. But the running gap remained: the brand that once owned the marathon had lost the runners, and winning them back would take years — if they came back at all.