Jubensha 剧本杀: 45,000 murder-mystery stores in two years — then the ¥62 price war

The script-murder store boom was China's fastest retail fad of 2019–2021. The TV show 明星大侦探 lit the fuse in 2016; by December 2019 the number of stores had jumped from 2,400 to 12,000, past 30,000 by the end of 2020 and 45,000 by April 2021. The market crossed 10 billion yuan in 2019 (up 68%) and reached 11.74 billion in 2020 — but growth had already collapsed to 7%, while the opening wave kept rolling.

The price war of 2022 broke it. Average spend per game fell from ¥247 in 2019 to ¥82 in 2020 and ¥62 in 2021 — a floor at which operators said no shop could profit. Stores were offered for zero-yuan transfer and found no takers; one operator estimated half the industry was closing. Registrations being cancelled rose from 350-plus in 2019 to over 1,000 in 2021 and 500-plus by August 2022 alone; industry revenue for 2022 was forecast to shrink about 3 billion yuan, and total financing for the year dropped to 236 million.

By 2023 the washout was personal: one brand owner closed three stores and lost over 3 million yuan, a franchisee lost 400,000 in under six months and begged for any handover that returned his deposit. Veteran customers were leaving at a reported 40–50% rate, script fairs shrank from about 200 publishers to 70–110, and the category settled into a long, quiet shake-out.