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The encyclopedia · Engineering & Operations · Operational decision · 2011

TEPCO's Fukushima plant was built for a 5.7m tsunami — the wave was 15m

Fukushima Daiichi was designed for a 5.7m tsunami. The 2011 wave was 15m. Three reactors melted down, and 160,000 people were evacuated.

TEPCO · 2011-03-11

What happened

On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of Japan, triggering a tsunami that overwhelmed the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, operated by TEPCO. The plant's seawall was designed for a maximum tsunami height of 5.7 meters. The actual wave was approximately 15 meters.

The tsunami flooded the plant's backup diesel generators, which were located in basements, cutting off power to the reactor cooling systems. Without cooling, three reactors underwent meltdown, releasing radioactive material and forcing the evacuation of over 160,000 people. It was the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl.

The investigation found that TEPCO and Japanese regulators had ignored warnings about the risk of larger tsunamis. A 2008 internal TEPCO study had predicted a possible 15-meter tsunami, but the company did not act on it. The case illustrated how the assumption that 'it hasn't happened before' is not a safety analysis, and how regulatory capture — the close relationship between TEPCO and the regulators — can suppress the warnings that matter.

Why it happened

  • The plant's seawall was designed for a 5.7m tsunami; the actual wave was 15m.
  • Backup generators were in basements and were flooded, cutting off reactor cooling.
  • TEPCO and regulators ignored a 2008 internal study predicting a possible 15m tsunami.
  • Three reactors melted down; 160,000+ people were evacuated.
What it cost3 meltdowns; 160K+ evacuated; $200B+ cleanupcatastrophic

The lesson

'It hasn't happened before' is not a safety analysis. TEPCO's own study predicted the 15m wave. The cost of the seawall was millions; the cost of not building it was $200B.

Aftermath

Japan shut down all 54 nuclear reactors for safety reviews. TEPCO was effectively nationalized. The disaster accelerated Germany's decision to phase out nuclear power. The case prompted global reforms in nuclear safety, including requirements for protection against 'beyond-design-basis' events.

Sources

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