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The encyclopedia · Trading & Investing · Financial decision · 2008

COSCO Shipping lost $577M on freight derivatives when the Baltic Dry Index crashed

China's state-owned shipping giant bet on the Baltic Dry Index at its peak — and lost $577M when shipping rates collapsed 93%.

China COSCO Holdings · 2008-12

What happened

China COSCO Holdings is one of the world's largest shipping operators, a state-owned enterprise that operates container ships, dry bulk carriers, and tankers across global trade routes.

In 2008, COSCO's dry-bulk unit purchased Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) — derivatives traded on the Baltic Exchange that are linked to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The company said it purchased the FFAs to lock in costs of chartered-in vessels when the BDI averaged 7,123 points.

When the global financial crisis hit, shipping rates collapsed. The BDI plummeted from a record high of 11,793 in May 2008 to just 764 points by December 12, 2008 — a 93% crash. COSCO's FFA positions incurred a net loss of 3.95 billion yuan ($577 million).

The loss was one of the largest corporate derivatives mishaps of the 2008 crisis. COSCO's Hong Kong shares fell 2.8% and Shanghai shares fell 7.2% on the news. A rebound in the BDI in early 2009 helped ease some of the FFA losses, but the incident highlighted the dangers of speculative hedging in volatile freight markets.

Why it happened

  • COSCO bought FFAs locking in shipping rates when the Baltic Dry Index was near its all-time high — the worst possible timing for a hedge.
  • The company claimed the FFAs were hedges, but buying at the peak of a cycle is speculation, not risk management — a real hedge would have been in place before the boom.
  • The 93% crash in the BDI during the 2008 financial crisis was a black swan event, but COSCO's position was already vulnerable because it had bought at the top of the market.
What it costCNY 3.95 billion ($577 million) losscostly

The lesson

A hedge that locks in prices at the peak of a cycle is not a hedge — it is a leveraged bet that the good times will last forever.

Sources

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    Somewhere, someone solved the problem this company failed at. 2nd Opinion →