The encyclopedia · Strategy & Leadership · Strategic decision · 1864–1868
Choshu won every battle against the shogunate — and the victories made it ungovernable
In the 1860s Choshu beat the Tokugawa shogunate’s armies twice, which made it the leader of the anti-shogunate movement — and ungovernable.
Choshu domain
From historyHistory and classical literature, legend included. An analogy to think with, not a modern precedent.
What it means today
Every company that wins a battle that creates a new market — a startup that disrupts an industry and then is disrupted by the next startup — faces the Choshu question: does the victory make you the leader of the new order, or does it make you obsolete?
What happened
In the 1860s, the Choshu domain (modern Yamaguchi Prefecture) became the centre of the anti-shogunate movement. In 1864, the shogunate launched a punitive expedition against Choshu. The domain's radical samurai, led by Takasugi Shinsaku, defeated the shogunate's army. In 1866, the shogunate launched a second expedition. Choshu defeated it again.
The victories made Choshu the leader of the anti-shogunate movement. The domain allied with Satsuma, and the two domains overthrew the Tokugawa shogunate in 1868. The Meiji Restoration began, and Japan was transformed from a feudal state into a modern nation.
But the victories also made Choshu ungovernable. The radical samurai who had won the battles expected to be rewarded with power. The domain's government was torn between the radicals and the moderates. The internal conflict weakened Choshu's position in the new Meiji government, and the domain's leaders were gradually marginalised. The victories that overthrew the shogunate also destroyed the domain that won them.
Why it happened
- The victories created a class of radical samurai who expected to be rewarded with power. The domain's government could not satisfy their expectations without alienating the moderates
- The alliance with Satsuma was a marriage of convenience: the two domains had been enemies for centuries, and the alliance was based on their shared opposition to the shogunate, not on shared interests
- The Meiji Restoration centralised power in Tokyo, and the domains were abolished in 1871. Choshu's leaders had overthrown the shogunate, but the new government did not need them
The lesson
A victory that creates a new order can leave the victors with no place in it. Choshu brought down the shogunate; the government that replaced it had no use for the domain that did the bringing down.
Aftermath
The Choshu domain was abolished in 1871 and became Yamaguchi Prefecture. Choshu's leaders — Kido Takayoshi, Ito Hirobumi, Yamagata Aritomo — became leaders of the Meiji government, but the domain itself was dissolved. The Choshu victories are cited in Japanese history as the definitive case of a victory that created a new order and made the victors obsolete.
Sources
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