案例库 · 战略与领导 · 战略决策 · 8th century
这条还没译成中文,下面是英文原文。
The Lion Who Convicted His Best Minister on a Rival's Word Alone
A jackal talks a lion king into executing his most valuable ally by never once asking the ally to answer the charge.
the lion king · Dimna the jackal
史例出自史书或古典文献,也包括其中的传说部分。是可以借来想问题的类比,不是当代先例。
对今天的意义
Any time a leader acts on a subordinate's warning about a colleague without hearing the accused, they are running the lion's exact play.
怎么回事
A stray bull, Shanzabeh, wins the lion king's favor and rises to chief counselor, eclipsing the jackal Dimna. Dimna, envious, sets out to destroy him without ever accusing him openly: he tells the lion, unprompted, that a courtier is plotting treason, then tells Shanzabeh, separately, that the king means him harm.
The lion's error is not believing a liar — it is never testing the claim. Dimna predicts that Shanzabeh will enter the throne room 'with the appearance of one about to attack.' When the bull walks in looking wary (because Dimna has just warned him too), the lion reads the prophecy as confirmed and never asks Shanzabeh a single question.
The lion kills Shanzabeh on the spot. Only afterward, licking his wounds, does he start to doubt Dimna — and by then his best minister is dead over a claim no one ever cross-examined. The truth surfaces later through a servant who overheard Dimna's own accomplice condemning him; Dimna is tried and executed, but the bull stays dead.
The tale is the frame story of the whole Kalila wa Dimna collection, written explicitly as a manual for rulers. Its warning is procedural, not moral: an advisor's confident prediction is not evidence, and a decision that costs you your most capable person deserves the five minutes it takes to ask them directly.
为什么会这样
- The lion acted on a single interested source's prediction with no independent check, the textbook failure mode for advisor-fed decisions.
- The 'evidence' Dimna supplied was manufactured by Dimna himself — he primed both sides so the outcome would look like confirmation.
- The victim was never given a chance to answer the charge before the lion acted, so the one witness who could have disproved it was silenced by the verdict itself.
教训
A confident prediction from someone with something to gain is not evidence — verify with the accused before you act on the accuser.
后来呢
The story became the opening and title tale of Kalila wa Dimna, one of the most translated books in history (Arabic, Persian, Syriac, Greek, Castilian, and dozens more), read for over a millennium as a primer on courts, flatterers, and the discipline a ruler owes a decision before it's irreversible.
资料来源
- Kalilah and Dimnah, or, The Fables of Bidpai (full text)
- Kalilah and Dimnah; or, The Fables of Bidpai: being an account of their literary history
- Travelling Tales: Kalīlah wa-Dimnah and the Animal Fable — The Public Domain Review
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