案例库 · 产品与设计 · 产品决策 · 2008
这条还没译成中文,下面是英文原文。
Guns N' Roses spent over a decade and a reported $13M making Chinese Democracy
Chinese Democracy took 15 years and a revolving lineup to finish, and its Best Buy exclusivity deal left the retailer holding unsold stock.
Guns N' Roses · Geffen Records · 2008-11-23
怎么回事
Axl Rose began recording Chinese Democracy in the early 1990s and kept working on it through a complete turnover of the band's lineup, missing a 1999 delivery deadline by nearly a decade. Geffen Records pulled the album from its release schedule in 2004 and cut its funding, stating that finishing and paying for the record was Rose's obligation, not the label's.
Best Buy became the album's exclusive U.S. retailer, prepaying UMG roughly $14M for 1.3 million copies with no right of return — a bet that the marathon production and built-up anticipation would translate into blockbuster sales. Estimates of the album's own production cost range from roughly $12M to $13M across contemporaneous reporting, a figure the band's own management later disputed as overstated.
The album debuted at number 3 on the Billboard 200 with 261,000 first-week U.S. copies, below expectations for a release with this much anticipation and cost, then dropped 78% in its second week to number 18. It went platinum in the U.S. and sold roughly 2.6 million copies worldwide by early 2009 — respectable in isolation, but far short of covering its combined production cost, marketing, and the guaranteed retail buy against the band's earlier albums, which had sold tens of millions.
为什么会这样
- Fifteen years of open-ended studio time with no fixed budget meant the album's cost kept climbing long after any reasonable sales projection could justify it.
- Geffen's 2004 decision to cut funding and treat completion as Rose's personal obligation removed the commercial discipline a label deadline would normally apply.
- Best Buy's exclusive, no-returns prepayment bet on hype built over a decade of delays, and the delays themselves had already exhausted much of the audience's anticipation by release.
- A near-total band lineup turnover during production meant the album that finally shipped carried little of the creative continuity that made the band's earlier records resonate.
教训
An open-ended budget and no delivery deadline don't buy a better record — they buy a longer runway for the cost to outgrow whatever the record eventually earns.
后来呢
Chinese Democracy became shorthand in the music industry for runaway, undisciplined studio production. Best Buy's exclusive-retail bet was widely cited afterward as a cautionary example of prepaid exclusivity deals. Guns N' Roses did not release another studio album of original material for over a decade afterward, and Axl Rose's later legal disputes with the band's management over unpaid fees stemmed partly from the album's drawn-out production.
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